So there's another Bin Laden tape out, the first in a long while.

This could be seen as an attempt by Bin Laden to influence the election against Bush; his mocking comments towards the President certainly make it come off that way.

But I don't think it will work, because of a theory I'll call "The Batman Effect".

Batman is constantly trying to put the Joker out of business for good. But if you haven't noticed, he generally never quite manages. The Joker is never, ever truly vanquished; he'll always be back for more.

But when the Joker's on the loose again, you don't stop to think "Damn, Batman still hasn't managed to get rid of this guy, we better find somebody else." You don't say "get me Aquaman on the phone." You think about the only guy who actually does something about the Joker, even if it hasn't been a permanent solution: the only guy who's been able to do the clown some damage and set back his schemes a ways.

You put up the damned Bat Signal and hope that Batman answers the call.

Bush is Batman to Bin Laden's Joker. And the American public isn't going to dump Batman just because he hasn't won the final battle with the Joker yet.

Bottom line: Bin Laden probably just gave the election to Bush. Not because of anything in particular he said: but simply because he lives, and Americans will realize that the lunatic has escaped from Arkham Asylum yet again...

PS: Hey! I think I finally fulfilled my promise to do a Heroes For Bush post myself, if somewhat belatedly...

Round the horn
Captain Ed: "As for the effect the tape will have on the election, I think it will be negligible. It reminds people that OBL is still alive, which hurts Bush; on the other hand, it reminds people that we're at war and very much at risk, which hurts Kerry..."

Wiz and bang: "Osama Bin Laden, in his just released video tape, quotes Michael Moore's "My Pet Goat" line. Remember, Michael Moore is so highly thought of by the Democrats that he was given a box seat for the Democratic convention..."

Bill at INDC: "Did bin Laden voice any displeasure with Bush's support of the Federal Marriage Amendment? Because if he did, I think we definitely need to check Lockhart's satellite phone records..."

The Jawa Report: "Many in the Muslim world are victims of the propaganda put forth by outlets such as al Jazeera. Al Jazeera and al Qaeda also believe they can foist this worldview upon the American people. They are wrong.

What will our response be to this propaganda effort? I am more confident now than I was just hours ago that President Bush will win reelection...."

Jeff G: "bin Laden’s speech was quite like a Michael Moore jeremiad, albeit peppered with allusions to Arab history instead of allusions to Pop Tarts and pepperoni Hot Pockets..."

Winds of Change: "The failure of capturing or killing Osama bin Laden to date should not be seen as a reason to despair in the war on terrorism. If anything, it should only be viewed as a reason as to why the war should continue..."

Donald Sensing: "I pray no more catastrophes befall an American city and pray likewise for a swift end to the war on terrorism. But the new OBL tape should encourage us that we are winning. Before 9/11, bin Laden acted, not blustered. Now bluster is about all he's got against America, though al Qaeda sadly still kills abroad."

Jeff Jarvis: "I swear the guy saw Fahrenheit 9/11 and picked up the themes for his latest wacky show -- even the fixation with that goat book. It's so nutty that if he weren't such an evil murdering slime, it would almost be funny. Or it would sound like another 527 ad..."

Charles Johnson: "In this presidential election, you need to vote as if your life depends on it."

Pejman Yousefzadeh: "While I can only hope that this sort of appearance will serve to remind Democrats and Republicans that we shouldn't hate one another, and that we should save our hate for terrorists instead, I'm not altogether confident that such a thing will happen..."

Belmont Club: "The other course is to reject Osama's terms utterly; to recognize the pleading in his outwardly belligerent manner and reply that his fugitive existence; the loss of his sanctuaries; the annihilation of his men are but the merest foretaste of what is yet to come: to say that to enemies such as he, the initials 'US' will always mean Unconditional Surrender. Osama has stated his terms. He awaits America's answer."

Mitch Berg: "100% of Terrorist Masterminds Endorse Kerry"

The Moderate Voice has a thorough review of the statement, an excellent roundup, and says: "The question is what events (like an attack) happen next, or if any candidate says anything the next few days to enhance or undercut his standing on the terrorism issue."

Hugh Hewitt: "As for the bin Laden tape --it ticks off Republicans across the board because it is rightly viewed as a butcher's threat to kill some more if Bush is re-elected. Whether it changes even one vote remains to be seen, but it certainly raises an already intense level of commitment to the president's re-election among his supporters to impossible-to-surpass levels. "

Beldar: "Of course, I don't believe for an instant that bin Laden's sincere. Only a blithering fool would trust him...One such blithering fool may be elected President of the United States on Tuesday. And Osama bin Laden — like Madame Binh, Daniel Ortega, a succession of Soviet dictators, Saddam, and Kim Jong Il before him — has already begun his sly attempts to manipulate that candidate. So it is that this blithering fool's personal history of enthusiastically swallowing just this kind of bait, hook, line, and sinker — and then trying to base America's course upon it — scares me far more than anything Osama bin Laden could ever say..."