Iraqi Compliance: An Oxymoron

If I got to be Secretary General of the U.N. for a day....

Secretary General Bear: And now, we call Dr. Hans Blix to report on the progress of weapons inspections in Iraq.

Dr. Blix: Thank you, Secretary General. If I may begin...

Secretary General Bear: Dr. Blix, please answer the following question either "yes" or "no". Has Iraq complied fully and immediately with all provisions of Resolution 1441, which, as you may recall, was drafted "to afford Iraq, by this resolution, a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations under relevant resolutions of the Council" ?

Dr. Blix: Respectfully, Secretary General, the situation is more complex than can be addressed ---

Secretary General Bear: Yes, or no, Dr. Blix?

Dr. Blix: I fail to see the need for ---

Secretary General Bear: Yes, or no?

Dr. Blix: Very well; no, however ----

Secretary General Bear: Thank you for your report, Dr. Blix, you may step down.

Dr. Blix: But significant progress has been demon--

Secretary General Bear: You may step down, Dr. Blix.

Dr. Blix: Signs of greater openness are emerg---

Secretary General Bear: Shut up, Dr. Blix.

-=-=-=-=-

I'm not holding my breath to see this scene played out, of course. But let's recap, on a more point-by-point basis, where Iraq stands as per its obligations under Resolution 1441. I'll do this Fisking-style: the full text of the "meaty" part of the resolution will be included below, with my comments interspersed. Onward:

The Security Council...1. Decides that Iraq has been and remains in material breach of its obligations under relevant resolutions, including resolution 687 (1991), in particular through Iraq’s failure to cooperate with United Nations inspectors and the IAEA, and to complete the actions required under paragraphs 8 to 13 of resolution 687 (1991);

As I discussed last night, Iraq is already in material breach; it is incumbent upon it to prove that it has met its obligations. The default, current state is: they are in breach.

2. Decides, while acknowledging paragraph 1 above, to afford Iraq, by this resolution, a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations under relevant resolutions of the Council; and accordingly decides to set up an enhanced inspection regime with the aim of bringing to full and verified completion the disarmament process established by resolution 687 (1991) and subsequent resolutions of the Council;

Note the word "final" in there. Not "an opportunity to comply which, if it fails to act immediately upon, we'll offer another chance." Not "an opportunity to comply which, if it doesn't seize, we'll negotiate some more, and then extend the time period allowed for compliance."

"...final opportunity...".

3. Decides that, in order to begin to comply with its disarmament obligations, in addition to submitting the required biannual declarations, the Government of Iraq shall provide to UNMOVIC, the IAEA, and the Council, not later than 30 days from the date of this resolution, a currently accurate, full, and complete declaration of all aspects of its programmes to develop chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and other delivery systems such as unmanned aerial vehicles and dispersal systems designed for use on aircraft, including any holdings and precise locations of such weapons, components, subcomponents, stocks of agents, and related material and equipment, the locations and work of its research, development and production facilities, as well as all other chemical, biological, and nuclear programmes, including any which it claims are for purposes not related to weapon production or material;

4. Decides that false statements or omissions in the declarations submitted by Iraq pursuant to this resolution and failure by Iraq at any time to comply with, and cooperate fully in the implementation of, this resolution shall constitute a further material breach of Iraq’s obligations and will be reported to the Council for assessment in accordance with paragraphs 11 and 12 below;

Secretary of State Colin Powell, December 2002: "(the Iraqi declaration contains a) pattern of systematic…gaps (that constitute) another material breach"

Hans Blix, 1/18/03: "Twelve years later (since the end of the 1991 Gulf War) we're still uncertain of whether they have weapons of mass destruction... We are not closer because there are too many gaps in it (the Iraqi declaration) and the world would like to be assured that Iraq is rid of weapons of mass destruction. And until we inspectors have been convinced of that we cannot so report to the Security Council."

Hans Blix, 1/21/02: "We feel the declaration (by Iraq to the United Nations) has not answered a great many questions of the past which still remain open. "

Is there anyone, anywhere who believes that the Iraqi declaration was "accurate, full, and complete" ? And in the absence of such an absurd belief, how is it possible to avoid concluding Iraq is in violation of this clause of the resolution?

5. Decides that Iraq shall provide UNMOVIC and the IAEA immediate, unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to any and all, including underground, areas, facilities, buildings, equipment, records, and means of transport which they wish to inspect, as well as immediate, unimpeded, unrestricted, and private access to all officials and other persons whom UNMOVIC or the IAEA wish to interview in the mode or location of UNMOVIC’s or the IAEA’s choice pursuant to any aspect of their mandates; further decides that UNMOVIC and the IAEA may at their discretion conduct interviews inside or outside of Iraq, may facilitate the travel of those interviewed and family members outside of Iraq, and that, at the sole discretion of UNMOVIC and the IAEA, such interviews may occur without the presence of observers from the Iraqi Government; and instructs UNMOVIC and requests the IAEA to resume inspections no later than 45 days following adoption of this resolution and to update the Council 60 days thereafter;

As has become clear, Iraq has not provided its scientists to the UNMOVIC teams for private interviews. Let's even forget for a moment that, according to Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, the United States has intelligence proving that Hussein has indeed ordered the death of any scientist who cooperates with inspectors -- along with their family, of course.

No, let's just pretend, for one delirious moment, that we actually believe Iraq is attempting to get its scientists to comply with the request for private interviews. Do we seriously believe that the government of Iraq has no tools at its disposal to compel obedience to such a request?

I'm not talking torture or threats of violence. How about a simple, "You will answer the inspectors' questions fully and completely in private, or you will be fired." That's the kind of instructions that are given all the time in criminal investigations around here; am I to believe that Iraq is so respectful of its scientists "rights" that it can't bring itself to issue a similar order?

So: Until and unless I hear that such a "talk-or-get-fired" message has been delivered by Iraq to its scientists, I will continue to believe the obvious: that Iraq has no intention of abiding by this clause of the resolution, and never did.

6. Endorses the 8 October 2002 letter from the Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC and the Director-General of the IAEA to General Al-Saadi of the Government of Iraq, which is annexed hereto, and decides that the contents of the letter shall be binding upon Iraq;

I won't go through every detail of the Chairman's letter, but here's one high point:

"On the question of aerial imagery, UNMOVIC may wish to resume the use of U-2 or Mirage overflights. The relevant practical arrangements would be similar to those implemented in the past..."

Iraq has refused to allow U-2 flights.

7. Decides further that, in view of the prolonged interruption by Iraq of the presence of UNMOVIC and the IAEA and in order for them to accomplish the tasks set forth in this resolution and all previous relevant resolutions and notwithstanding prior understandings, the Council hereby establishes the following revised or additional authorities, which shall be binding upon Iraq, to facilitate their work in Iraq:

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall determine the composition of their inspection teams and ensure that these teams are composed of the most qualified and experienced experts available;

– All UNMOVIC and IAEA personnel shall enjoy the privileges and immunities, corresponding to those of experts on mission, provided in the Convention on Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations and the Agreement on the Privileges and Immunities of the IAEA;

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have unrestricted rights of entry into and out of Iraq, the right to free, unrestricted, and immediate movement to and from inspection sites, and the right to inspect any sites and buildings, including immediate, unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to Presidential Sites equal to that at other sites, notwithstanding the provisions of resolution 1154 (1998) of 2 March 1998;

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right to be provided by Iraq the names of all personnel currently and formerly associated with Iraq’s chemical, biological, nuclear, and ballistic missile programmes and the associated research, development, and production facilities;

We know that Iraq's list of scientists is incomplete: it ends with those who worked in the program in 1991.

– Security of UNMOVIC and IAEA facilities shall be ensured by sufficient United Nations security guards;

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right to declare, for the purposes of freezing a site to be inspected, exclusion zones, including surrounding areas and transit corridors, in which Iraq will suspend ground and aerial movement so that nothing is changed in or taken out of a site being inspected;

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the free and unrestricted use and landing of fixed- and rotary-winged aircraft, including manned and unmanned reconnaissance vehicles;

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right at their sole discretion verifiably to remove, destroy, or render harmless all prohibited weapons, subsystems, components, records, materials, and other related items, and the right to impound or close any facilities or equipment for the production thereof; and

– UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right to free import and use of equipment or materials for inspections and to seize and export any equipment, materials, or documents taken during inspections, without search of UNMOVIC or IAEA personnel or official or personal baggage;

8. Decides further that Iraq shall not take or threaten hostile acts directed against any representative or personnel of the United Nations or the IAEA or of any Member State taking action to uphold any Council resolution;

Obviously a case can be made that Iraq's continued attacks on U.S. and British aircraft are violations of this clause, but some folks just don't seem to care that our pilots get shot at regularly.

9. Requests the Secretary-General immediately to notify Iraq of this resolution, which is binding on Iraq; demands that Iraq confirm within seven days of that notification its intention to comply fully with this resolution; and demands further that Iraq cooperate immediately, unconditionally, and actively with UNMOVIC and the IAEA;

10. Requests all Member States to give full support to UNMOVIC and the IAEA in the discharge of their mandates, including by providing any information related to prohibited programmes or other aspects of their mandates, including on Iraqi attempts since 1998 to acquire prohibited items, and by recommending sites to be inspected, persons to be interviewed, conditions of such interviews, and data to be collected, the results of which shall be reported to the Council by UNMOVIC nd the IAEA;

11. Directs the Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC and the Director-General of the IAEA to report immediately to the Council any interference by Iraq with inspection activities, as well as any failure by Iraq to comply with its disarmament obligations, including its obligations regarding inspections under this resolution;

A brief note here: I would question whether Dr. Blix has fulfilled his responsibilities as stated in this clause. His reaction, when faced with the breaches I have noted above, has not been to "report immediately to the Council" --- it has been to negotiate, discuss, cajole, and otherwise attempt to provide additional chances for Iraq to do what it should have done immediately.

And finally, the wrap-up, including the always-impressive-sounding standard Security Council closing line:

12. Decides to convene immediately upon receipt of a report in accordance with paragraphs 4 or 11 above, in order to consider the situation and the need for full compliance with all of the relevant Council resolutions in order to secure international peace and security;

13. Recalls, in that context, that the Council has repeatedly warned Iraq that it will face serious consequences as a result of its continued violations of its obligations;

14. Decides to remain seized of the matter.

I don't know how to make it any clearer that Iraq has failed, again, to fulfill their obligations to the United Nations. And I'm not interested in any comments that begin "But you've only highlighted the negative, look at all the positive steps they've taken..."

There should be no negatives. Any one of the failures I describe above is sufficient cause to declare Iraq to have failed its final chance to prove itself serious about disarming.

This is not a surprise to anyone paying attention.

The United States has displayed patience. We've worked through the U.N.; provided Iraq with one more "final chance" to go with all the others that they've had in the past twelve years. They have rejected that chance.

If the U.N. is willing to look honestly at its own resolution, it cannot fail to conclude that Iraq is in breach: that diplomacy, and inspections, are a fool's game. Saddam Hussein will continue to manipulate and deceive for as long as we let him: but he will never, ever, disarm.

Time's up. With or without the U.N., the U.S. must act, and swiftly.

By the way: The Washington Post has a solid editioral today which hits many of the same points as I do above. But I've got more direct quotes, and more links. Advantage: Blogosphere!